A high far northeast of the area will continue to produce locally breezy trade winds tonight. But, since the wind direction is a bit south of east the trades will be partly blocked over the smaller islands. As the high weakens and a weak front approaches from the northwest, the winds will become lighter tomorrow. The trade winds will temporarily strengthen again Wednesday as the front dissipates. The winds will weaken and shift to southeast starting Thursday night as a stronger front approaches from the northwest. The front will push through the islands Sunday bringing widespread rain.

Weather around the main Hawaiian islands remains rather dry. There is a northwest to southeast band of showery low clouds just east of the islands. A few of the showers are hitting the Big Island but since the low level flow is from the east southeast, nearly parallel to the band, most of the showers are staying offshore. A high about 1300 miles northeast of the islands remains rather strong with a central pressure around 1033 mb. However, winds over the main Hawaiian islands have weakened since yesterday. This is partly because the high has moved farther away to the northeast and partly because the troughing southwest of the islands has filled. The winds will continue to weaken through tomorrow as the high weakens further. Rainfall will remain light with night and morning showers concentrated over windward areas and possibly a few showers over interior areas in the afternoon. The trades will strengthen and shift back to a more easterly direction Wednesday as a new high moves east into position north of the islands. Showers will be concentrated over windward areas but rainfall will remain light. The stronger winds will not last long. A front will move toward the islands from the northwest on Thursday and the subtropical ridge will shift south over the islands. Winds over the islands will weaken and shift to southeast. The Big Island will partly block the southeast flow so winds over the small islands will become light and variable and the weather will become muggy and hazy. There will be some afternoon showers over interior areas but no heavy rainfall is expected. As the front gets closer on Saturday, winds will shift to southerly over Kauai and Oahu and prefrontal showers will develop. The front will reach Kauai by Sunday morning and push down to the Big Island by Sunday night producing widespread rainfall.

Buoy observations suggest surf along the east facing shores remains high enough to continue the high surf advisory through tonight. It still looks as if the surf along east facing shores will slowly subside overnight as the winds ease. The wave watch model has been forecasting a new west northwest swell to start building at buoy 51001, but there is no sign of the swell yet. This swell may produce advisory level surf along north and west facing shores tomorrow and Wednesday. This swell is forecast to come in from the west northwest, about 290 degrees, so it may produce advisory level surf along the west facing shores of the Big Island.

Small craft advisory for south of the Big Island and Alenuihaha channel through early Tuesday morning. High surf advisory for east facing shores of all islands except Lanai and Niihau till 6 am Tuesday.

DONALDSON

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